Land Use Department
      Planning & Zoning
      Inland Wetlands

3.0 POPULATION

This chapter examines the components that make up Bethel's population: growth, race and ethnicity, age, and income. As of the 1990 census, Bethel is divided into four census tracts. Each tract is representative of the town, with similar percentages for each of the population topics investigated. No one tract, for example, has disproportionately more elderly, Asians, poor, or married couples. The plan also analyzed the thirteen block groups into which the tracts are divided. (See Appendix D for tract and block group data.) Here too there are no differences in percentages significant enough to warrant separate analysis for land use planning.

3.1 Growth

Bethel's population in 1990 was 17,541. This was a relatively small increase of 10% since 1980. In previous decennials, Bethel had larger gains. Between 1960 and 1970, the population grew by 33%, and between 1970 and 1980 it grew by 46%. This general pattern is true for the ten towns in the Housatonic Valley region and thus for the region as a whole. The region and Bethel are growing nearly twice as quickly as the state overall, whose growth in the decade between 1980 and 1990 was only 5.8%. Bethel in 1990 was 9.3% of the region with the fifth largest population; the range being from Danbury's 65,585 to Bridgewater's 1,654. Despite its ranking as fifth largest, Bethel is second after Danbury in density: 1,032 people per square mile. HVCEO and the state estimate that in the year 2000, the town's population will have further increased another 9.5% to 19,220, reflecting both Bethel's continued attractiveness as a place to live and the existence of available land for development.

3.2 Race and Ethnicity

Bethel is, and has been, a largely white community. In the last census, white persons were 96% of the total population, with the next largest racial group being Asian and Pacific Islanders who were 2.1% of the town. This group was also the fastest to increase, having more than quadrupled in size since the 1980 census to 383 from 98 persons. Blacks in Bethel were 1.2% of the population in 1990, American Indian/Eskimo/Aleuts were 0.1%, and persons calling themselves Other were 0.3 percent. The largest component in the Asian/Pacific Islander group is made up of Asian Indians, followed by Chinese, Vietnamese, and Koreans. In 1980 and 1990 the census counted persons of Hispanic origin as a separate group but the persons identifying themselves as such could be of any race. (In Bethel, nearly all identified themselves as white.) The Hispanic population in 1990 was 2.1% of the total, an increase from 1.5% in 1980.

Between 1980 and 1990 all racial and ethnic groups other than Asian/Pacific Islander remained stable:

• The white population decreased slightly from 97% to 96%.
• The black population decreased slightly from 1.5% to 1.2%.
• The American Indian/Eskimo/Aleut group and the Other group remained the same: 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.

Compared to Bethel, the overall region's 1990 racial and ethnic distribution was about the same with a somewhat smaller percentage of white persons (93.5% for the region) and concomitantly larger percentages in the other categories: 2.8% of the population being black, 0.1% American Indian/Eskimo/Aleut, 2.3% Asian/Pacific Islander, and 1.0% being Other. Hispanics form 3.7% of the regional population. In Bethel and throughout the region, the most prominent ancestral origins are Irish, Italian, German, and English.

3.3 Age

The median age in Bethel has been creeping up, from 27.7 in 1970 to 33.5 in 1990. This is part of a national trend, as the huge baby boom generation advances into middle age. The median age for the state was 35 in 1990, and this expected to increase to nearly 39 years by 2000, in concert with the national trend.

In 1990, Bethel's under school-age population (up to 4 years old) was 1,307. This is a small increase over the 1980 figure (see Table 3), demonstrating that the late starters in the baby boom generation have now begun to have their families. This small peak will have shifted in the next census into the 5-19 group, and the pre-schoolers will continue their decline as a percent of the total population. In 1990, school-age children (5 to 19 years) totaled 3,855. Young adults in the family-creating stage (20 to 34 years) totaled 4,115. There are 6,687 in the family- and career-building stage from 35 to 65 years. Those older than 65 number 1,577, a larger group than the pre-school crowd.

Table 3 shows the age distribution for the past twenty years and how this has changed. It is clear that while the pre-school and school-age population has declined as a proportion of each decennial's total population (for example, from 10% to 7.4% for the 1-4 year olds), the group in its middle years has grown. Also, the percent change in this group is astronomical from 1970 to 1990, nearly doubling in the 20-34 and 35-64 groups (91.8% and 98% respectively). The percent change in pre-school and school-age children (18.4% and 15.9%) is a fraction of that of the older group, indicating that the birth rate is dropping, the size of families is shrinking, and the number of single adults is growing as baby boomers age. The retirement age group has hovered around 9% as a percent of the total population, but this can be expected to grow as the middle years group ages, as long as they do not move out of Bethel. The town's elderly population (75+) has grown in number from 491 to 656, with one person in 1990 claiming to be at least 110. If elderly Bethel residents choose to age in place - meaning that they remain Bethelites - this group will also see an increase in the next census.

The shifts in the age composition of Bethel's population demonstrate that municipal priorities may shift. A smaller number of school-age children and a growing number of middle-aged and elderly residents will require a rethinking by the town and its taxpayers of publicly funded social and educational services. It is also possible that public education will seem less of a priority by older Bethelites who no longer have children in school. Among Bethel's four census tracts, there is very little difference in age distribution: there are about the same percentages of school-age children, young adults, middle-aged, and elderly in each of the tracts. However, there are two small differences. Tracts 2001 and 2002 (see Appendix D) have a somewhat greater proportion of 25-34 year olds than the other two tracts (about 22% as opposed to 13%). In the next two age conservation, 35-44 years and 45-54 years, the slightly greater proportions switch to the other two census tracts. Tracts 2003.01 and 2003.02 have about 17% of their population in these age groups, while the other two tracts have about 13 percent. This probably reflects a need for growing families to have more space, and finding these larger more expensive homes in tracts 2003.01 and 2003.02.

3.4 Households

Bethel had 6,175 households in 1990, an increase of 978 or nearly 19% since 1980. In census parlance, a household includes all persons occupying a housing unit. All families are households, but not all households are families. A household may be one person living alone or a group of unrelated persons living together. A family is a householder (adult head of household) and one or more persons living together related to the householder by birth, marriage, or adoption. Thus, out of the 6,175 households, only 4,661 or 75% are families. This proportion has been dropping (also reflective of national trends): in 1970 families were 84.5% of all households and in 1980 they had somewhat declined to 81 percent, despite the overall population increase (see Table 4). This trend is true across the region. Within the region, Bethel lies about in the middle when families as a percent of households are compared, from Danbury's 67.6% to New Fairfield's 83 percent. Bethel's smaller family component than six other regional towns may reflect a greater variety of housing choices and a range of housing and rental costs, which allow more non-family households to live in Bethel.

The number of persons living in a household has also declined, from 3.37 in 1970 to 2.84 in 1990. In the region, the median number of persons per household is nearly the same, at 2.75, as Bethel. This indicates a growing number of households comprised of people who live alone, single parents with children living at home, and couples with no children or no children living at home. The traditional model of two parents with children is declining in representation here in Bethel as elsewhere nationally. The change since 1980 can be seen in Table 5.

Of all four categories, only that of married couple family is evidencing a decline. The proportion of married persons compared to all adults has declined to 60.2% from 63.5% in 1980. The proportions of single persons, widowed, and divorced have all grown in the past ten years, with the divorced category having the largest increase.

As with the changing age groups described above, the changing nature of households and families in Bethel has an implication for the kinds of services and housing stock that should be available in the town.

3.5 Income

The median household income in Bethel in 1990 was $53,761, which was 129% of Connecticut's median household income. As is common, the median family income was higher, at $59,517, reflecting the presence of dual earner couples and the generally more stable finances of families as opposed to households. The per capita income was $20,528, which is 102% of the state per capita income. Within the region, Bethel's median household income is eighth, with the range being from Danbury's $43,832 to Redding's $76,332.

These income figures naturally show a large increase since 1970; however, without holding the dollars constant, the comparisons made across decades can be misleading. For example, the 1970 median household income was $11,236, which is an apparently enormous increase in the standard of living for Bethel households. While the increase surely is real to some extent, it is not so large when inflation and the cost of providing for a household's needs are taken into consideration. Some of the real increase in median income is explained by a look at the higher level of education within the Bethel population since 1970. Twenty years ago, 12% of the town's adult population had a college education; in 1990 this had grown to a third of the population, with 86% having at least a high school education.

The rosiness of the household income picture is shaded by the families whose income places them below poverty. In 1990, 66 families, or 1.4% of all Bethel families, lived at or below the poverty threshold. This threshold varies depending on family size and the number of children under 18 living at home. A family of four (two adults and two children) with an income of $12,575 meets the poverty threshold. The poverty indicator has improved, however, for Bethel: in the 1970 census 146 or 3.4% of Bethel's families were poor. In the region, the number of poor families has also been dropping, to 2.6% from 3.4% of all families. One difficulty for some of Bethel's families may be the cost of their housing. In 1990, 40% of homeowner households and over 50% of renter households were paying more than 25 percent of their monthly household budget to cover the cost of housing. These figures are about the same for the Housatonic Valley region. Among Bethel's four census tracts, there are some differences in income distribution. It appears that the 24% of Bethel households earning more than $75,000 per year are largely concentrated in tracts 2003.01 and 2003.02 (35% of all households in both these tracts). The other two tracts have less than 15% of their households living at this affluent level. A second income grouping, probably reflecting prevailing housing market prices, can be found in tracts 2001 and 2002 where 23% of the households in each tract earn $35,000 to $49,999. Tract 2001 also has a somewhat larger concentration of households earning $15,000 to $34,999 than the other two tracts. Aside from these differences, Bethel's four census tracts have similar income distributions: i.e., about the same percentage of households in each tract earn $5,000 to $9,999, $10,000 to $14,999, etc.

It is clear from looking at these income data and at changes in size and design of new single family homes that Bethel has become a wealthier town over the past twenty years. The land use issues arising from this are several-fold: whether the housing stock is keeping pace in quantity and design with demographic changes, whether poor families are being priced out of Bethel, and what Bethel must do to remain attractive to homebuyers.

3.6 Conclusions

Bethel has been slowly changing over the past decades. The population size has increased in each of the last decennials since 1920, but the growth is slackening. The 1984 Plan of Development had anticipated that the town's population in 1990 would be between 18,000 and 18,800; that number is now expected to be reached sometime between 1995 and 2000. With the growth in population, Bethel remains racially homogenous, although Asian and Indian families are increasingly making the town their home. The age structure of the overall population is shifting away from youth towards maturity: the proportion of the population which is in primary school is lessening as against the middle-aged and elderly. Bethel at the millennium will be an older, more financially comfortable and well-educated community than it was twenty and thirty years ago.

The reasons given in the 1984 plan for Bethel's population growth remain valid more than ten years later:

• The continuing economic, employment, and population expansion northward from New York City, Westchester County, and southern Fairfield County will push Bethel's population growth as long as the town has readily developable land and affordable housing prices;
• Proximity to I-84 and thus to employment centers drives local growth; and
• Bethel's small town character, natural beauty, and attractive quality of life are appealing to families looking for a calm oasis linked to its rapidly urbanizing surrounding region.

Bethel's population growth and change have land use and planning implications for local housing, employment, community facilities (such as schools, parks, and the library), utility and road infrastructure, and the downtown.